Thursday, December 01, 2011

Modelling and Reality

Just read some articles provided by K and got some insight on relevance of statistics (or lack of proper use) in our world today. I have seen, that some risk managers in do not understand the underlying risks and assumptions they are facing. But just blindly following a procedure set by someone before. And so, some words of wisdom below ...

"To paraphrase from Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman in describing the economic meltdown, “… (modelers) went astray because (modelers), as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.” Models are, at best, ephemeral hypotheses about truth; therefore, sound scientific methods should continually be used to test if hypotheses (models) still reflect the truth".

One story of a model written by David X Li  that allowed the finance industry to price Credit Default Swaps and collateralized debt obligations, but the assumptions for that product were not improved or considered for scenario analysis...  and Taleb sums it up...

"People got very excited about the Gaussian copula because of its mathematical elegance, but the thing never worked," Nissam Taleb says. "Co-association between securities is not measurable using correlation," because past history can never prepare you for that one day when everything goes south. "Anything that relies on correlation is charlatanism."

So finally what Dr David X Li said sparks off some interest for me in applied mathematics...

"Finance might be the most successful area to use mathematics. The mathematics used in finance ranges from basic mathematics, such as numerical analysis, calculus, and statistics to more advanced ones, stochastic processes and stochastic differential equations, non-linear optimization etc. The areas we use the most in practice are numerical analysis and statistics.

Many practitioners go back to school to learn more mathematics after a few years working in industry. I like the saying by Professor Elias Shiu at the University of Iowa "Learning Mathematics is like rowing, if you don’t push forward you’d be pushed backward". Just keep rowing!

One famous applied mathematician once said, "Mathematics in every one of its applied areas is a good servant, but a bad master". At the end we are to solve practical problems, not a mathematical game or theorem."

Sunday, November 27, 2011

I really like this!

Ability is what you are capable of doing.
Motivation determines what you do.
Attitude determines how well you do it.

--Lou Holtz

AND this ....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/active/8143384/Danny-MacAskill-Way-Back-Home-new-bike-stunt-video-released.html

is truly inspiring!

Happy Sunday!

Monday, October 31, 2011

Subject: it should have been a funny letter

From: Radi
Sent: Tuesday, 20 September, 2011 10:03:48 PM
Subject: it should have been a funny letter

Hi, this time my letter won't be so funny.

Unfortunately, exactly on my birthday few days ago, which was supposed to be also my parents' 31st anniversary from their marriage, my dad died- unexpectedly, unbeliavable, I can say unfear... So, only few weeks after I experienced the greatest happiness of having a child I had to experience also one of my bigest fears- to lose someone I love so much and whose opinion for everything I will miss till I am alive.

As I am a religious person, I am doing my best to accept the fact. Of course, I know that all the people will die one day, I believe in heaven, I believe in God, but trust me, in moment like this, your faith is struggling to survive.

What I learned those days (it is not something new you don't know, but I will try to remind you):

1. We should always say to the people next to us about our feelings: that we care about them, that we love them.
2. It is so wrong to think like this: I will tell someone that I love him later, I will find more sparetime for him later, I am going to ask him to forgive me for something later....Forget about "later", and live now, coz every minute can be the last.
3. When it is really hard, you can see who are the people you can rely on. I will not go into details, but we really had hard time then we didn't need money or calls, but friends who stand next to us. Who won't only say: "if you need help, call me", but people who will help without asking anything. Because sometimes like in a bad dream, you just cannot scream for help even ialthough you are trying hard.
4. If you ever have the chance to help somebody, do not hesitate, just do it.
5. When you have had a bad day in this crazy life: do not be nervious with the people at home, nothing really matters at the end- career, all the material things do not mean anything, only the people next to you and the good memories.

You may say, Radi might be getting crazy, but my pain is so big, not only because he was my father, I know that most of you have lost someone, but I want to share with you also that he was really a rarely good person.

Several times he took at home strangers from the train station, because they have missed the last tain, he used to stand next to a person who seems to become a victom in different situations although often he became the victum at the end (broken nose, head) while other people will only watch, he would give blood for every person who was in need just because his blood type permits.

My father's name was Angel, and he was behaving like a real Christian, although he was not pretending to be a religios person as I do, even if I cannot say if I have done something good for many people without expecting to be rewarded somehow.

Think about it!

Radi

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Let go of Clinging

Lama Tsongkhapa says that this life is as impermanent as a water bubble, gone in a second. Seeing this, we should strive to take the essence of this perfect human rebirth and let go of clinging completely.


http://sharelife.wordpress.com/

Sunday, October 09, 2011

Quote

Queen Mother’s well-worn mantra: ‘Never complain, never explain.’

Friday, October 07, 2011

1955 - 2011

When I was 17 I read a quote that went something like "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself, "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "no" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything – all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure – these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

– Stanford University commencement address, 1995
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/05/steve-jobs-stanford-commencement-address_n_997301.html

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Adventure Capitalist

I have finished reading Adventure Capitalist by Jim Rogers. He made me realise several things.

The way to a successful investor is to do nothing - not until you see money lying there and all that is left for you to do is to go over and pick it up. Something without much risk.

I think how most of us invest in stock markets is hoping it will go up and we are taking a risk. But ny Jim Roger's definition, true investors, make bets based on little risk. Because there are not many great opportunities that will come along, do nothing in the meantime. Looking at my stock purchases, I bought at the wrong time, at the height of the stock. I should really base it on research, and when I am very sure of it, or when the people say "I will not buy another railway stock again".

His criticism of the US made me realise one thing, that i should be reading more about the world economy and not get sucked in what is happening in my own world. Read more, listen more to international news, go out travel more and know the country I am living in.

I am thinking what I have achieved in my four + years I have been in HK, and "if you come home on day one and end back where you started, then you probably should not have left in the first place". This is a very difficult one for me. It will take me a while to sort out what I have achieved and how I have grown mentally.

I see how business in HK is run a lot on relationships, and in China, it is more so. The importance of going out and networking is very important whichever industry you are in. In my case, this is probably one of my biggest weakness. I refuse to do it.

"Whatever the answer, you will not know it until you start asking the right questions, and asking them of the right people." Keep your friends close, but your enemy even closer. "Anyone involved in a war, running a company, or simply having an argument has to undersstand what the enemy, the competition, the other guy is up to or he has no hope of winning the battle, winning market share, or winning the debate. Every military school in the world will tell you have to understand how the other guy thinks. The enemy may be crazy, but you have to get into his head if you are ever to have any hope of defeating him."will tell you Know your enemy and live curious.

I played squash with Paddy. Squash itself is a tactical game, and one needs to anticipate the opponent's next move in order to position myself favourably. I need to get better.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Exams

Exams are coming soon - on 4th and 14th May! I am freaking out a little bit, and am taking time off work to study. Wish me luck!

There after I will spend a week back in my home country for work & a friend's wedding!

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Trying to be frugal!

This is very important to me. And so I found some information that helps.

Did you know that most millionaires live in modest homes and drive used cars? That's why they are rich. Don't expect to eat out at fine restaurants. You will be able to go someday soon but not now. Don't buy new clothes for a while. There is nothing wrong with what you already own.

So you don't like cutting coupons? Too bad. If you could save $10 on your shopping next trip why wouldn't you? Buy a cheaper brand of toothpaste. Use half the toothpaste you currently do - the size of a pea is all you need. And think about it, that $4.00 tube is now really only $2.00 ... because you are making it go twice as far! Food shopping, buy what’s on sale and learn to live with it. You'll save and not starve. Go to matinĂ©es instead of the nighttime movies. Think to yourself what it is you really like ... and then think of a way you can do it cheaper! Drink a lot of bottled water? Refill them at home. The savings will rake up. Take your lunch to work; eating at the fast foods and deli's cost a lot of money.

Be conservative with your utilities. Spend the evening at the library instead of heating up your place. And read their magazines and drop your subscriptions. Fix leaking faucets, turn off unused lights, etc.

Change your way of thinking. Instead of saying that something only cost a dollar think of it as keeping that dollar instead. That dollar will grow interest for you. So that item doesn't really just cost a dollar it costs you your future!

Learn how to invest ... not just save ... but invest. Think of every dollar your money is not earning as future money just dribbling out of your pocket.

Save for a rainy day. Then learn how to make your money work for you.
Doing all the things above, as hard as it is, will help you in the long run.

Tips
• Think before you buy anything. Do you really need it? If not put it back.
• Be strict with yourself.
• If you think you "need" something, wait one month (or six months, or whatever works for you) before you buy. If you still believe you need it, then get it.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Good Friday!

Today I went for Good Friday Mass at St John's. It was nice to see familiar faces and be reminded once again that whatever I am going through right now, pales in comparison to what Jesus went through. At first before I attended mass today, I was feeling a bit overwhelmed by a colleague at office who passed a callous remark that made me upset, and also at the prospect of the coming exams for a module that had been really difficult.

Lucky for me, I got the day off, and also saw R over the week. It was so nice to catch up, and good to know some people still stay the same. Plan for this week: Nice to get a phonecall for Sat lunch by my uni-mates, also might be going a swim this Sunday at the university pool! It is facing the sea, let's see how gorgeous it gets!

I am learning to be less sensitive, be more relaxed, ignore horrid comments, and disregard people who are not genuine. Also learnt to be careful of people who put on a false facade. Time will tell.

Have been reading updates on the elections via FB and also on the news. I have registered myself as a foreign elector and am looking forward to hearing about the competition in our district!

My only other favourite activity is listening to jazz on this amazing channel - jazzfm.com, and watching American Idol - go Casey Abrams!

Till then, signing off, and definitely in need of exercise!

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

One Day at a Time

April 7, 2011 by Kwee Lain
[ From DailyOM ]

Our lives are made of stepping stones, one experience after another in perfect and divine order.

The years of our life do not arrive all at once; they greet us day by day. With the descent of each setting sun, we are able to rest our heads and let the world take care of itself for a while. We may rest assured throughout the night, knowing that the dawn will bring with it a chance to meet our lives anew, donning fresh perspectives and dream-inspired hopes. The hours that follow, before we return to sleep once more, are for us to decide how we want to live and learn, laugh and grow. Our lives are sweeter and more manageable because we must experience them this way: one day at a time.

Imagine the future stretching out before you and try to notice if you feel any tension or overwhelm at the prospect of the journey still to come. Perhaps you have recently made a lifestyle change, like beginning a new diet or quitting smoking, and the idea of continuing this healthy new behavior for years seems daunting. Maybe you have started a new job or are newly married and can feel an undercurrent of anxiety about your ability to succeed. If you can shift your focus from what may happen years down the line and return it to the day that is before you right now, you may find a measure of calm and renewed confidence in your capabilities. You may also discover an inner faith that the future will take care of itself.

The way we show up for our lives today and tomorrow has an enormous affect on who we will be and what we will be experiencing years from now. If we can remain fully engaged in the day at hand, enjoying all it has to offer and putting our energy into making the most of it, we will find that we are perfectly ready and capable to handle any future when it arrives.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Doing nothing at all

Awesome song from Bruno Mars titled The Lazy Song which totally embodies what I feel except one or two parts that apply only to the men! I had a great weekend, spent house hunting and met my cowfu and his family who were in HK for a holiday. House hunting was optional, but thought to prepare myself a bit for the rent hike come June! Got a good break of resting this weekend (meaning I did zero housework!), back from Korea for work over Tues-Fri this week. Stayed at the Grand Hyatt Seoul, and partied at JJ Bar, great band they had! Only two words to descibe Seoul, Beef and Girls! It was one of the best bbq beef and I ate loads and loads. I saw a lady who just finished a plastic surgery, evidenced by the bruise marks and stitches on her face. Might be worth it, as the ladies in Korea, holy smokes, are all hottttttt!

Today I Don't Feel Like Doing Anything

I Just Wanna Lay In My Bed
Don't Feel Like Pickin' Up My Phone
So Leave A Message At The Tone
'Cause Today I swear I'm Not Doin' Anythin'

I'm Gonna Kick My Feet Up
Then Stare At The Fan
Turn The TV On
Throw My Hand In My Pants
Nobody's Gon' Tell Me I Can't

I'll Be Lounging On The Couch, Jus' Chillin In My Snuggie
Click To MTV So They Can Teach Me Howda Dougie
Cause In My Castle I'm The Freakin' Man

Oh Oh
Yes I Said It
I Said It
I Said It 'Cause I Can

Today I Don't Feel Like Doing Anything
I Just Wanna Lay In My Bed
Don't Feel Like Pickin' Up My Phone
So Leave A Message At The Tone
'Cause Today I Swear I'm Not Doin' Anythin'
Nothin' At All

Woo Hoo Ooh
Woo Hoo Ooh Ooooh Ooh Ooh
Nothin' At All
Woo Hoo Ooh
Woo Hoo Ooh Ooooh Ooh Ooh

Tomorrow I'll Wake Up Do Some P90X
Meet A Really Nice Girl Have Some Really Nice Sex
She's Gonna Scream Out "This Is Great!" (Oh My God! This Is Great!)
Yeah
I Might Mess Around, and Get My Collage Degree
I Bet My Old Man Would Be So Prouda Me

But Sorry Pops You'll Just Have To Wait
Oh Oh
Yes I Said It
I Said It
I Said It 'Cause I Can
Today I Don't Feel Like Doing Anything
I Just Wanna Lay In My Bed
Don't Feel Like Pickin' Up My Phone
So Leave A Message At The Tone
'Cause Today I swear I'm Not Doin' Anythin'

No I Ain't Gonna Comb My Hair
'Cause I Ain't Goin' Anywhere
No No No No No No No No No
Ohhh

I'll Just Strut In My Birthday Suit
And Let Everything Hang Loose
Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah
Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah

Monday, March 07, 2011

Back!

Just came back from a 4 day trip to Ho Chi Min with the family minus Paul (coz he wants to go for another trip of his own to the US). It was good, a break from the work.

I am having a problem with my studies. This one quantitative module is very difficult. My assignment 1 was due since 28 Feb, but I still have not completed the last question. I just have to get my thoughts in order and focus. In my mind I keep saying it is difficult and whenever I sit down to complete it, my thoughts stray and sometimes I will go on to the internet for entertainment. Days have passed like this and I am currently struggling with it again.

I have to find a way to block out the 'noise' in my head and finish it once and for all. I can do it.

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Nice Quote

A smile is the greatest currency of all.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Happiness

The below extract makes sense. And that only we can decide if we want to be happy or not, and how do we want to lead our lives. Money is only a commodity, it should not contain emotional attachments to it.

"Those who were happy reported thinking such as "Yeah, this sucks, but I still have dreams. There are still things I can do. And I'm going to focus on those things." Those who were miserable made statements such as "This is so unfair. My whole life is ruined. I will never be happy." In obtaining the life histories of the patients, I saw that those who were happy had full and active lives, they had friends and jobs and were involved in activities. Whereas those who were miserable, often did nothing but stay in bed with little social contact and had more problems with bed sores and other ailments due to the inactivity.

I noticed that those who were happy made a clear choice to be happy. They could often describe the precise moment or the words that they said to themselves.

Since then, even though we have had much more significant stressors in our lives, I'm no longer waiting to be happy because I recognize that happiness is a choice that we make every day. Happiness is not due to the things that happen or don't happen to us. Happiness isn't due to how much money we have or the house we live in or how successful we or our children are. Happiness is present every day we choose for it to be present.

Therefore, happiness is a choice to feel the emotions that result from an event, to fully grieve, but also, to recognize our ability to accept what life offers us rather than remain focused on what is taken from us. Happiness is an attitude."

http://www.excelatlife.com/happiness.htm

Buddha Quotes

By Kwee Lain

1. Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment.

2. Do not overrate what you have received, nor envy others. He who envies others does not obtain peace of mind.

3. It is better to travel well than to arrive.

4. Just as a candle cannot burn without fire, men cannot live without a spiritual life.

5. Peace comes from within. Do not seek it without.

6. Teach this triple truth to all: A generous heart, kind speech, and a life of service and compassion are the things which renew humanity.

7. To keep the body in good health is a duty. Otherwise we shall not be able to keep our mind strong and clear.

8. There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth; not going all the way, and not starting.

9. The only real failure in life is not to be true to the best one knows.

10. You, yourself, as much as anybody in the entire universe, deserve your love and affection.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

19 Days into 2011

School has started. Every lecture leaves question marks in my head. I hope it gets better.

So far, I am happy with the way the year is starting out work wise.

Last Sun 16th, I went for a concert introduced by Sam as her friend plays the cello in the event. It was inspiring and I was impressed with a brilliant pianist who played the 2nd symphony (Rachmaninov Rhapsody on a Theme of Paganini). He is Meng Chieh Liu and displayed exellent showmanship and utter mastery. He managed to evoke a variety of emotions in me throughout his performance.

Jackie visited last weekend too. The usual dim sum, egg tarts and Stanley market rounds. She and M managed to buy many knick knacks at Ladies Market, surely that is something that I am unable to do. I didn't think there would be anything at that tourist trap! I'm glad they had fun buying and wearing boots! I was a little sad to see her leave, as it had been so nice to have someone truly cares for me in HK, and when she left, I felt the warmth dissipate.

Chinese New Year will be upon us in less than 2 weeks time! It would be nice to go home to a sunny island. A definite welcome change from the frigid weather here!