I had just finished this book - Fooled by Randomness after I bought it in late 2008. Took me a year? For those who remember - i always enjoy my reads in bite sized portions.
It is about a trader using stories and his own theories (and others) to explain how people, whether we know it or not, no matter how rational we are, can get fooled by randomness. Why - because we are humans and are flawed where emotions come into play. So luck vs skills and market performance, behavioral science, noise, probability all come into play in the event of an outcome. But what part of luck, what park of skill - it the subject of his treatise. Best summarized using a Greek legislator, Solon's theory of all things being equal in the long run.... and also that it does not matter how freequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.
He got me interested in probability. And it is more a science than an art. He reckons Mathematicians compute but not understand Maths and apply it in the real world. That made me think twice if I should study Maths, afterall, the curx of being a trader is the ability to know what people want, and the ability to take risks. I take small calculated risk, which is something I will strive to change this year. I would like to take greater calculated risks and not be tied to my previous thoughts. It is acceptable to do things contrary to what I have said of done before. Like George Soros. Risk sometimes pays off.
He made me question the fundamentals of "Financial Engineering" and "Markowitz theory" - as what is financial engineering and it's use in the world - apart from complicated formules to calculate future risk - Can anyone compute future risk? Are they all just moralizers? Can we just rely on formulaes to make decisions - but we live in a world ruled by human emotions.
Finance has become a greedy profession. I see button pushers, data monkeys, people driven by the allure of glamour and excessive payouts. Surely, there is another industry requiring similar skill but with better payoffs, will the excessive payouts of the banking still remain glittery in 30 years time? Is there another profession I see myself in with lower barriers of entry?
He brought up the case of O.J Simpson and without being too certain (a skill to give leeway for oneself), the odds of him not being the killer is one in a trillion trillon given of his DNA * husband of the desceased. If lawyers and the jury understood probability....
Over to the next book now!
Friday, January 08, 2010
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Paula Getting Married
I had never known that wedding planning was such a massive task.
Visiting the Parents
It can be a very simple affair with a lot of jewellery
You get more angpaos than you do during CNY
Observing the customs (ala red umbrellas, door openers, and sequencing) is important
Wedding Dinner
Table seating at wedding dinners can go wrong and cause other table numbers to go wrong too.
Everyone will look for you at a wedding.
You have to talk a lot.
You will not have time to eat.
That aside, the bride and groom had made about 350 people happy yesterday. From the early attendance at the solemnisation to dressing up and taking a day off on Friday from work to help. It was one massive party! It was so joyous and beautiful!
Seeing the happy reunion family and friends of parents made my heart sing, so did endless trains of smiles that lined the ballroom entrance as people streamed in and out. I especially enjoyed the cocktail, very grown-up, very posh and well setup. Shang is the best!
It would now be US instead of I,
She would not have to stay with mom and dad, but with in-laws,
It is a new chapter with the man she had been with for more than 10 years, I am happy for her.
Nothing will be changed - people just move where they live, but their roots will always be where their heart belongs.
Visiting the Parents
It can be a very simple affair with a lot of jewellery
You get more angpaos than you do during CNY
Observing the customs (ala red umbrellas, door openers, and sequencing) is important
Wedding Dinner
Table seating at wedding dinners can go wrong and cause other table numbers to go wrong too.
Everyone will look for you at a wedding.
You have to talk a lot.
You will not have time to eat.
That aside, the bride and groom had made about 350 people happy yesterday. From the early attendance at the solemnisation to dressing up and taking a day off on Friday from work to help. It was one massive party! It was so joyous and beautiful!
Seeing the happy reunion family and friends of parents made my heart sing, so did endless trains of smiles that lined the ballroom entrance as people streamed in and out. I especially enjoyed the cocktail, very grown-up, very posh and well setup. Shang is the best!
It would now be US instead of I,
She would not have to stay with mom and dad, but with in-laws,
It is a new chapter with the man she had been with for more than 10 years, I am happy for her.
Nothing will be changed - people just move where they live, but their roots will always be where their heart belongs.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Grand Hyatt in Beijing
I tried to be cheap. I chose to fly Air China over Dragonair. It was a small jet, and an airport bus had to drive 10 mins before we reached the tiny airplane. It was better than i thought, and arrived in Beijing without any hiccups.
I tried to be adventurous. I forgot 1st October is Beijing's indepedence day, and 60th birthday. So from Beijing Intl Airport, instead of the usual taxi routine, i decided to take the Airport Express to 东直门，changed to Line 2 to 建国门。Ideally I should have alighted at 王府井 (which I found out after a long walk), but I listened to the guy at the train station and alighted at 天安门东。So braving the tourist crowds at Tiananmen amidst tight security (the roads were cordoned off, so no access to taxis) i walked one train stop to arrive at 东方广场。It looks like a Singaporean mall, marked by Bread Talk and Crystal Jade.
Finally reached Grand Hyatt. Glad to be indoors again, and glad to hear my mummy's voice, i drifted to sleep. I made a reservation for 大董restaurant. Famed for its fusion style food, and non oily Peking Duck, I had to visit this place. Appetizer: Duck soup in orange skin, Crab & Egg Dish. For the mains I had stewed beef in goose live sauce and peking duck. Dessert: Fruits. It costs around HKD400 for that. Pretty reasonable, great service and ambience.
I was absolutely stuffed, so I took at 15 minute walk and visited the gym and pool at Hyatt. The pool's architecture was beautiful. Open from 6-11pm. Gym is open 24 hours. I shall endeavour to run tomorrow morning!
The two days ahead look to be interesting. I hope to wake up early tomorrow at 6.30am for a run, then head back by 7.30am to pack and have breakfast till 8.30am. there after try to firm up the necessary appointments for the next two days.
Tmr's meetings:
Leave at 9.30am - for 10am meeting
Leave at 11am for 12pm - 12.30noon lunch
Leave at 2pm for 3pm meeting
Leave 4pm for 4.30pm meeting
- End of Day -
I tried to be adventurous. I forgot 1st October is Beijing's indepedence day, and 60th birthday. So from Beijing Intl Airport, instead of the usual taxi routine, i decided to take the Airport Express to 东直门，changed to Line 2 to 建国门。Ideally I should have alighted at 王府井 (which I found out after a long walk), but I listened to the guy at the train station and alighted at 天安门东。So braving the tourist crowds at Tiananmen amidst tight security (the roads were cordoned off, so no access to taxis) i walked one train stop to arrive at 东方广场。It looks like a Singaporean mall, marked by Bread Talk and Crystal Jade.
Finally reached Grand Hyatt. Glad to be indoors again, and glad to hear my mummy's voice, i drifted to sleep. I made a reservation for 大董restaurant. Famed for its fusion style food, and non oily Peking Duck, I had to visit this place. Appetizer: Duck soup in orange skin, Crab & Egg Dish. For the mains I had stewed beef in goose live sauce and peking duck. Dessert: Fruits. It costs around HKD400 for that. Pretty reasonable, great service and ambience.
I was absolutely stuffed, so I took at 15 minute walk and visited the gym and pool at Hyatt. The pool's architecture was beautiful. Open from 6-11pm. Gym is open 24 hours. I shall endeavour to run tomorrow morning!
The two days ahead look to be interesting. I hope to wake up early tomorrow at 6.30am for a run, then head back by 7.30am to pack and have breakfast till 8.30am. there after try to firm up the necessary appointments for the next two days.
Tmr's meetings:
Leave at 9.30am - for 10am meeting
Leave at 11am for 12pm - 12.30noon lunch
Leave at 2pm for 3pm meeting
Leave 4pm for 4.30pm meeting
- End of Day -
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Update!
I have not blogged in a long while. Since June. Now it is 8th August.
Many things have happened. One of which is my boss would like me to move into an account management role with no Sales Target. That was not my original idea when I joined this company. I wanted to have Sales exposure, and to learn about FX Options pricing.
Since joining the firm from June 2007, it has been 2 years and 2 months now. I have gotten exposure to Sales in that time. I have gotten exposure on the Sales bit, but the Options pricing that bit is lacking. Assuming I move into an Account Mangement Role with exposure to Emerging Markets like China & Korea, I could take time to learn about Market Trends and study FX Options. I could buy some time doing that, and getting some certification in the meantime.
My previous employment history was at a Private Bank on the Derivatives Desk since April 2006 - June 2007. That was exposure to FX Options and Equity Options. Joining this firm, I got exposure to Sales and FX Options sell and buy side market. I hope to do account management to grow the run-rate of the business, and pick up FX Option strategies and trends. After which hopefully I can move into trading or research.
That aside, picked some dress ideas for my sister's wedding. From Jason Wu, he rocks - he designs for Mrs Obama, great cuts and colours.
I hope to be back in SG for my birthday or sometime in SEPT and to see what work needs to be done on Paula's side, and check on my dresses!
Many things have happened. One of which is my boss would like me to move into an account management role with no Sales Target. That was not my original idea when I joined this company. I wanted to have Sales exposure, and to learn about FX Options pricing.
Since joining the firm from June 2007, it has been 2 years and 2 months now. I have gotten exposure to Sales in that time. I have gotten exposure on the Sales bit, but the Options pricing that bit is lacking. Assuming I move into an Account Mangement Role with exposure to Emerging Markets like China & Korea, I could take time to learn about Market Trends and study FX Options. I could buy some time doing that, and getting some certification in the meantime.
My previous employment history was at a Private Bank on the Derivatives Desk since April 2006 - June 2007. That was exposure to FX Options and Equity Options. Joining this firm, I got exposure to Sales and FX Options sell and buy side market. I hope to do account management to grow the run-rate of the business, and pick up FX Option strategies and trends. After which hopefully I can move into trading or research.
That aside, picked some dress ideas for my sister's wedding. From Jason Wu, he rocks - he designs for Mrs Obama, great cuts and colours.
I hope to be back in SG for my birthday or sometime in SEPT and to see what work needs to be done on Paula's side, and check on my dresses!
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Bruno is wicked
Bruno's Austrian TV show is the "biggest German-speaking show on television in every single German-speaking country. Except Germany" The pictures from his photoshoot are hilarious!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/fashionpicturegalleries/5515316/Bruno-Sacha-Baron-Cohens-latest-creation.html
Here goes some of the best lines that came out of Sacha Baron Cohen's Mouth:
As Brüno, to an American fashion designer: “In Austria, the costume director is a more important job than doctors. Is it the same here?” Designer: “No, fashion isn’t thought of as seriously as the medical profession here.” Brüno: “That’s ridiculous.”
Designer: “I think so.” Brüno: “Fashion saves a lot more lives than doctors.” Designer: “I think so.”
As Ali G, to Buzz Aldrin: “When is man going to walk on da sun?” Buzz Aldrin: “It’s much too hot on the sun.” Ali G: “We could go in da winter, when it’s colder.”
As Bruno: “Look at the evil people in the world: Saddam Hussein, Hitler, Stalin. What do they all have in common? Moustaches!”
Ali G: “A lot of boys me know is trying to get their girlfriends into feminism. Do you think that is right?”
Sue Leece, Director of the Centre of Gender Research: “Yes, I do actually. I think it’s a good thing.”
Ali G: “Do you think all girls should try feminism at least once?”
Leece: “Well, girls today often don’t realise how much they've benefited from feminism.”
Ali G: “But do you think it is right when they try feminism when they is drunk at a party or whatever with a few mates?”
As Bruno: “I gave [my adopted baby] a traditional African name: OJ.”
As Bruno: “Do you think if house music was around in the Thirties, World War II would have even happened?”
Ali G: “Do you believe kids should be caned?”
Sir Rhodes Boyson MP: “I do.”
Ali G: “You do! Wicked, man. You believe kids should be caned even in school?”
Sir Rhodes: “Even in school.”
Ali G: “Do you not think, Sir Rhodes, if you get caned in school you can’t concentrate as well. Because a lot of people out there say that, if you’re getting caned.”
Sir Rhodes: “Well, I was caned in my time and I’ve concentrated all my life.”
Ali G: “You were caned? Respect, man. Respect.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/fashionpicturegalleries/5515316/Bruno-Sacha-Baron-Cohens-latest-creation.html
Here goes some of the best lines that came out of Sacha Baron Cohen's Mouth:
As Brüno, to an American fashion designer: “In Austria, the costume director is a more important job than doctors. Is it the same here?” Designer: “No, fashion isn’t thought of as seriously as the medical profession here.” Brüno: “That’s ridiculous.”
Designer: “I think so.” Brüno: “Fashion saves a lot more lives than doctors.” Designer: “I think so.”
As Ali G, to Buzz Aldrin: “When is man going to walk on da sun?” Buzz Aldrin: “It’s much too hot on the sun.” Ali G: “We could go in da winter, when it’s colder.”
As Bruno: “Look at the evil people in the world: Saddam Hussein, Hitler, Stalin. What do they all have in common? Moustaches!”
Ali G: “A lot of boys me know is trying to get their girlfriends into feminism. Do you think that is right?”
Sue Leece, Director of the Centre of Gender Research: “Yes, I do actually. I think it’s a good thing.”
Ali G: “Do you think all girls should try feminism at least once?”
Leece: “Well, girls today often don’t realise how much they've benefited from feminism.”
Ali G: “But do you think it is right when they try feminism when they is drunk at a party or whatever with a few mates?”
As Bruno: “I gave [my adopted baby] a traditional African name: OJ.”
As Bruno: “Do you think if house music was around in the Thirties, World War II would have even happened?”
Ali G: “Do you believe kids should be caned?”
Sir Rhodes Boyson MP: “I do.”
Ali G: “You do! Wicked, man. You believe kids should be caned even in school?”
Sir Rhodes: “Even in school.”
Ali G: “Do you not think, Sir Rhodes, if you get caned in school you can’t concentrate as well. Because a lot of people out there say that, if you’re getting caned.”
Sir Rhodes: “Well, I was caned in my time and I’ve concentrated all my life.”
Ali G: “You were caned? Respect, man. Respect.”
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Sam is Coming!
Sam in coming to HK this 17-18th June. Really excited to see her! Sam has a business trip and is hoping to squeeze some time out this Thursday for us to hang out!!!!!!!! Big smile.
I read this article by Michael Chugani that is very true. Property tycoons call the shots in Hong Kong and that HK bureaucrats shudder in their presence, so much so property developers can get away with anything. They count lift lobbies, other common areas and even with thickness of walls as part of the size of flats. And they make us pay for it. It is really fake floor sizes, and counter-logic to me. Recently at the launch of Lake Silver development on Ma On Shan, consumers were complaining that sales brochures showed breath-taking sea views from the flats they were selling. In fact, by the time the flats are ready for occupation, those views will already have been blocked by other planned high-rises.
I am not sure if the above is misrepresentation. It is the future owners' responsibility to ask if the view will be affected? If the sales people lie about that answer, then it is obviously wrong. But if the owners' didn't ask about the future view, then I don't think we should blame the developers. Word of advice: Never trust anything you hear in HK and China! Seeing is believing!
I read this article by Michael Chugani that is very true. Property tycoons call the shots in Hong Kong and that HK bureaucrats shudder in their presence, so much so property developers can get away with anything. They count lift lobbies, other common areas and even with thickness of walls as part of the size of flats. And they make us pay for it. It is really fake floor sizes, and counter-logic to me. Recently at the launch of Lake Silver development on Ma On Shan, consumers were complaining that sales brochures showed breath-taking sea views from the flats they were selling. In fact, by the time the flats are ready for occupation, those views will already have been blocked by other planned high-rises.
I am not sure if the above is misrepresentation. It is the future owners' responsibility to ask if the view will be affected? If the sales people lie about that answer, then it is obviously wrong. But if the owners' didn't ask about the future view, then I don't think we should blame the developers. Word of advice: Never trust anything you hear in HK and China! Seeing is believing!
Sunday, June 07, 2009
What i learnt this weekend
"A bank is a place that will lend you money if you prove that you don't need it." Bob Hope